What: FAU vs North Texas
When: Sunday, January 26th, 2:00 PM
Where: UNT Coliseum “The Super Pit”
Series: UNT leads 14-11
TV: ESPN U
Radio: Fox 640
Live Stats: Stats broadcast
Line: N/A
Ken Pom Prediction: UNT 74 FAU 65
Owls at a Glance
Offense – 80.7 PPG, 45.9% FG, 34.0% 3PT
Defense – 77.5 PPGA, 44.0% FGA, 39.0% 3PTA
Rebounding – 37.2 RPG Owls, 37.7 RPG Opponents
FAU Notes
After a week long bye FAU is back in action on Sunday as they head to Denton Texas for a road battle with UNT. The Owls last played on Sunday the 19th, snapping a 2 game skid with a thrilling comeback victory at home against Rice, a game in which they were down 16 and came back late for a much needed victory.
It has been a wild ride over the past 3 games for FAU as against UAB and Tulane, the Owls fell behind early before storming back and taking the lead, but ultimately falling short in the end, however against Rice the Owls snapped that trend as despite falling behind early once again they were able to shut the door on their Owl foes late. That has been the trend overall on the season for FAU, as they have had 3 losing streaks of 2 games and another that was 3 games, however each time they have bounced back with a win streak of 2 games or more.
There has been a lot that FAU has been able to do right over the past 3 games, as the ball movement has been crisp, with the Owls assisting on 50% or more of their field goals in all of their last 3 games and their rebounding has taken a major leap since the struggles against ECU, with the Owls winning the rebound battle in all 4 of their games since losing the rebound battle 49-32 in their win against ECU. The negatives over the past 3 games has been what has plagued the Owls all throughout the year, as against Tulane and Rice they shot under 30% from 3, while they allowed Rice and UAB to shoot better than 35% from 3 with Rice finishing 52% from beyond the arc.
Overall on the year, the positives for FAU offensively continues to be their shot selection, lack of turnovers and overall ball movement, as their effective fg% sits at 52.4% which is 106th in the country, they only turn it over on 16.2% of possessions which is 96th in the nation and A/FGM is 56.3% which is good for 80th in the nation. The negatives offensively have been their inconsistent offensive rebounding and free throw shooting, as despite the past 3 games trending well on the offensive glass the Owls average an offensive rebound on 29.3% of possessions which is 207th in the nation, while they convert on only 69.7% of their free throws which is 258th in the nation.
On the defensive side of things, their biggest strengths have been their ability to create turnovers and interior defense, as FAU is currently 122nd in turnover %, forcing one on 18.3% of possessions, while they force a non-steal turnover on 8.7% of possessions which is 76th and on the interior they limit teams to 47.5% which is 60th in the country. The biggest struggle for FAU on the defensive side of things continues to be their perimeter defense, as they are still allowing an offensive rebound on 32% of possessions which is 268th, however they won the offensive rebound battle in each of their last 3 games, but their allowed 3-point percentage sits at 39.3% which is 360th in the nation.
Tre Carroll is still leading the way for the Owls as he has scored in double figures in 9 out of the past 10 games and overall on the year he is averaging 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds, while shooting 52% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc. The key for the Owls remains their ability to get diverse scoring, as Kaleb Glenn, Baba Miller and Leland Walker are all averaging double figures, while Kyky Tandy averages 9 and was strong from beyond the arc against UAB and Rice.
In this matchup against UNT on the defensive side of things, FAU will need to find a way to to limit the Mean Green from beyond the arc and if they are able to do that it will come down to their execution on offense, as the Mean Green are top 40 in the country in 3 point %, while being bottom 200 in 2 point %. On the other side of things, it is known UNT will try to lull FAU into their slow style of play, however that is why it will be important for the Owls to not let that happen and get consistent scoring from the tip, whether that is 3 point shooting or from the interior.
This game is going to be an up-hill battle as UNT is undefeated at home this season, however there is a path to success for the Owls and it will start with not allowing UNT to get going from beyond the arc and being able to execute their offense how they want too. If the Owls are able to do both of those things this could potentially be a much closer game than the analytical models are making it out to be.
Mean Green at a Glance
Offense – 69.7 PPG, 45.4% FG, 37.0% 3PT
Defense – 59.1 PPGA, 41.4% FGA, 33.4% 3PTA
Rebounding – 33.0 RPG Owls, 27.7 RPG Opponents
North Texas Notes
The Mean Green have gotten off to a great start this season, checking into this game at 14-4 and they have won 4 in a row during AAC and 5 out of 6 conference games. After a productive 1st year under Ross Hodge saw the Mean Green finish 19-15, they have built on that in year 2 bringing in a strong collection of talent from the transfer portal and are looking to compete for an AAC title and potentially an at-large to the NCAA tournament.
It has been a dominant year 2 for Hodge and Co specifically during AAC play, as the Mean Green have held all of their conference opponents outside of UAB under 70 points and despite a close loss to Memphis, they have bounced back and rattled off 4 in a row. The Mean Green have been able to do it in a variety of ways with dominating wins against Rice and UTSA and grind out wins against ECU, Temple and UAB where they have had to come from behind.
On the offensive side of things, UNT has been extremely efficient, currently top 100 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, checking in at 33.7% which is 74th, 3 point percentage, sitting at 37.1% which is 39th, and they have been efficient at getting to the line with a FTA/FGA of 40.3 which is 34th, also converting on their attempts with a free throw percentage of 77.7% which is 30th. The statistical struggles offensively for UNT has been their lack of distribution, interior offense and turnovers, currently with an Assist/FGM of 45.1 which is 319th, a 2 point percentage of 50.2% which is 205th and a turnover percentage of 17.7% which is 197th.
Defense is the Mean Green special and it shows in the statistics, as they are top 100 in the nation in Effective FG percentage allowed, turnover % forced, offensive rebounds allowed, and 2 point percentage allowed, with the most notable being a turnover forced on 21.4% of possessions which is 26th in the nation. The lone struggle defensively has been their overabundance of fouls which teams have been able to convert on, currently allowing an FTA/FGA of 39.8 which is 312th and teams have been converting at a 73.7% rate which is 269th.
UNT’s dominance has been displayed when they use their ability to control pace of play, currently with the 359th slowest offense in the country, averaging a shot every 20.4 seconds and defensively they lull teams into their style of play, with an allowed length of possession of 18.2 which is 323rd. When UNT is able to dominate is when they execute their offense through their slow style of play and that translates to the defensive end with their opponent getting looped into their pace of play.
The Mean Green have been led this season by a pair of transfers, as Drake transfer G Atin Wright has averaged 13.8 PPG and 2.2 RPG, while FAU transfer Brenen Lorient has averaged 12.6 points and 4.4 rebounds. They have been the only 2 double figure scorers on average for UNT and both have taken a major step up in year 1 with the Mean Green.
The key for UNT in this matchup will be their continued strong defense, specifically on the perimeter and consistent offense, which they can generate by exposing FAU’s inconsistent perimeter defense. If UNT is able to limit FAU’s chances to get going from beyond the arc, while also converting on their looks from deep, this is a game where FAU could fall victim to the Mean Green’s dominating pace of play and it will be up to the Owls not to let that happen.