What: FAU vs UTSA
When: Wednesday, January 29th, 7:00 PM
Where: Eleanor R Baldwin Arena
Series: FAU leads 11-6
TV: ESPN +
Radio: Fox 640
Live Stats: Stats broadcast
Line: FAU -9
Ken Pom Prediction: FAU 86 UTSA 78
Owls at a Glance
Offense – 79.9 PPG, 45.7% FG, 33.9% 3PT
Defense – 77.5 PPGA, 44.0% FGA, 39.3% 3PTA
Rebounding – 36.9 RPG Owls, 37.4 RPG Opponents
FAU Notes
FAU is back in action with a quick turnaround, as after just 2 off days they will face off against UTSA on Wednesday at home. This is a pivotal matchup for the Owls as Ken Pom has them favored in their next 5 games and a win here could spark an important stretch.
The Owls last faced off against North Texas on Sunday and after they shell-shocked the Mean Green in the first half, heading into the break with a 7 point lead, they collapsed in the second half, allowing UNT to outscore them by 20 in the final half en route to a 77-64 victory. The Owls held leads against Tulane, UAB and now North Texas, however they were unable to hold on for the victory in any of those matchups.
Inconsistencies have plagued FAU on both ends of the court throughout the season and it boiled over against UNT, as after FAU held them to only 1 3 pointer attempted through the first 14 minutes of action, they went on to finish 7 of 14 throughout the remainder of the game. Offensively, the Owls turned it over 8 times and shot less than 20% from beyond the arc in the second half and with their defense struggling they lacked the offense to keep up with the Mean Green.
Statistically, the Owls offense remains efficient in numerous areas, as they are 114th in effective FG% at 52.3%, 106th in turnover % at 16.4%, 98th in 2-point percentage at 53.5% and they assist on 55.9 % of possessions which is 88th. The improvement offensively for FAU has come from the offensive rebound department, as the Owls have spent a majority their season in the 200s in offensive rebounding percentage, however they are now 199th, grabbing one 29.6% of the time and they have only lost the rebounding battle once since facing off against ECU on the 5th of January.
On the defensive side of things, after allowing UNT to shoot 46% from beyond the arc, FAU now checks in second to last in the country, 363rd, in allowed 3 point percentage at 39.5% and overall opponents effective FG % against FAU is 52.2% which is 241st. The Owls allowed offensive rebounding % of 32.1% sits at 277th in the nation which is rising, however the biggest strength of this defense continues to be their interior defense, which limits teams to 47.9% which is 79th in the nation.
Tre Carroll and Kaleb Glenn are deadlocked atop the season score column for FAU as each are averaging 12.4 points per game, with Carroll averaging 5.2 rebounds and Glenn averaging 4.5. Baba Miller is right behind them, averaging 11 points per game and a team high 7.1 rebounds, while guards KyKy Tandy and Leland Walker are knocking on the door of double figures averaging 9 a game and when one of them gets hot is when this FAU offense becomes dangerous.
The key for FAU against UTSA offensively will be finding ways to generate complementary scoring from their guards alongside the trio of Miller, Carroll and Glenn as those 3 have displayed the ability to score consistently, but if the Owls can get a solid performance from Evans Jr, Walker or Tandy this offense will an extra jolt which it has been missing. On the defensive side of things the Owls have to find a way to guard the perimeter for 40 minutes as they were able to do it at times against North Texas and it almost led to a win, however it wasn’t consistent throughout and it cost FAU the game.
Although UTSA has struggled this season, they have an extremely capable scorer in Primo Spears and FAU will also have to contain him, but if they can do that, guard the perimeter consistently and generate offense from outside of their top 3 scorers they should be in a good position against the Road Runners.
Road Runners at a Glance
Offense – 79.3 PPG, 43.0% FG, 36.0% 3PT
Defense – 78.6 PPGA, 46.9% FGA, 36.4% 3PTA
Rebounding – 32.9 RPG Owls, 37.7 RPG Opponents
UTSA Notes
UTSA has had an up and down start to year one of the Austin Claunch era, as the Road Runners check into this matchup at 9-10, however they have defeated 3 AAC opponents. Despite suffering 5 losses outside the Ken Pom top 100, UTSA has hung around in conference play defeating Wichita State, Rice and Temple, finding ways to win through their star in Primo Spears.
Spears has led the way this season for the Road Runners, averaging 21.2 points per game, nearly 9 points higher than their next highest scorer in Marcus Millender who’s averaging 12.3 points per game. The Road Runners have 5 total scorers averaging double figures and although diverse scoring has been FAU’s path to success, the Road Runners have been at their best when Spears is taking over.
The Road Runners have had success in a few different areas offensively, as their biggest strength has been their 3 point percentage which is 74th in the nation at 36%, however they also only turn it over 16.2% of the time which is 95th and when they have gotten to the line they have cashed in, hitting 82.8% of their free throws which is 2nd in the country. The struggles for UTSA have also been in a few places as they convert 2 pointers only 46.9% of the time which is 309th, they only grab an offensive rebound 26.8% of the time which is 279th and although they convert at the line, they struggle to get there with a FTA/FGA of 29.2 which is 287th.
On the defensive side of things, it has been a struggle all over the place as their lone strength has been their ability to force turnovers, taking one away 20.3% of the time which is 52nd in the country, however outside of that it has been bleak. UTSA allows teams to shoot 36.5% from 3 which is 317th and 54.2% from 2 which is 293rd and teams are getting to the line a fair amount as UTSA allows a 42.9 FTA/FGA which is 346th and lastly, they allow an offensive rebound on 36% of possessions which is 350th.
This game looks to be an uphill battle on the defensive side of the ball for UTSA as despite FAU’s struggles from beyond the arc, they tend to shoot better at home and with the way the Road Runners have allowed teams to attack the rim and get to the line, that could open up the offense as a whole for FAU. The key for UTSA will be winning their offensive possessions, as their 3 point success could cause FAU problems, but what will really help them is if they can convert more of their interior looks, or get to the line at a higher rate.
Although FAU is expected to win by the analytical models, that is no guarantee and if UTSA is able to get a dominant game from Primo Spears this one figures to be a close battle and it will be up to FAU to stop him.
